FM newswire for 1 December, hot articles for your morning reading

Today’s broadsheet from the FM website pressroom with three sections of hot news.

1. Links to interesting news and analysis
2. Exciting but probably fake story for today:  the General says “No one can separate Islam and Pakistan”
3. Feature article: another advocate of the war whitewashes himself, preparing for defeat
4. Plus an Afterword

Also — you can now subscribe, receiving posts by email — see the box on the upper right.

(1)  Today’s links

1. “A key British official reminds us of the forgotten anthrax attack“,  29 November 2009 – A flashback to our forgotten past.
2. “The Pentagon’s Most Expensive Weapon“, Jim Arkedis (director of PPI’s National Security Project), 30 November 2009 — An interesting perspective on the Pentagon’s budget.
3. “The face of rotted Washington“, Glenn Greenwald, Salon, 30 November 2009 — A wonderful portrait of a statesman in our Versailles-on-the-Potomac.
4. “Tajik Grip on Afghan Army Signals New Ethnic War“, Gareth Porter, Inter Press Service, 28 November 2009

(2)  Exciting story for today: the General says “No one can separate Islam and Pakistan”

It’s all over the Internet, so it must be true!  Today’s text is  “US stalls as Pakistan drifts”, Syed Saleem Shahzad, Asia Times, 1 December 2009:

Three developments over the past few days have dealt a severe setback to the designs of the United States in the South Asian theater of war.

… Then, as war rages against Muslim militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas, the chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani shocked secular elements in the country by saying that “no one can separate Islam and Pakistan” and that the goal was to turn the country into a true Islamic state.

Media madness #1 – their lies and ignorance make us stupid

Critics (like me) have railed about the flaws of the old media.  Media experts, such as Clay Shirky, have warned that the new news media might be worse.  Today we look at evidence supporting their fears.

Here we see the essence of making us stupid Internet websites, 21st century propaganda machines.  It’s not that their analysis was wrong; everybody is often wrong.  It’s what happens when called on their errors:  seldom do they issue corrections.  For the partisans — left or right – lies are good, if they lead their flock in the desired direction.   That’s why they they’re unreliable sources of information.

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Content

1. News:  Palin polls as well as Obama!
2. Slate shows us the truth
3. Fox News and Hot Air accurately report the story
4. For more information and an afterword

(1)  News:  Palin polls as well as Obama!

Listing the many articles on the Internet featuring this story would be tedious.  Here are a few of the most cited on Google:

• “Goodness. Sarah Palin Favorable Rating 47%, Barack Obama Job Approval Rating 46%“, Jim Hoft, Gateway Pundit, 19 November 2009 
• “Sarah Palin vs. Barack Obama: The approval gap silently shrinks to a few points“, blog of the Los Angeles Times, 23 November 2009
• “Yes, she can: Palin has a shot at the presidency“, Matthew Dowd, columnist at the Washington Post, 24 November 2009

Of course, the Instapundit (Glenn Reynolds) never misses an opportunity to spread a right-wing myth:  as seen here, here, and here. 

(2)  Slate shows us the truth

We’re doomed unless we can learn – an ominous case study

Anyone paying attention knows that America shops too much and saves too little.  Fifty years of this has left a large fraction of households at the brink of bankruptcy, and the nation grossly indebted to foreign nations (e.g., Japan, China, members of OPEC).  Yet every month sees Wall Street cheer when we spend more than we make.  Worse, every holiday season sees otherwise intelligent folks cheering us on to shop until we drop.

Perhaps they think it’s funny.  If so, with millions of American at risk of either losing their home, bankruptcy, or both — they have an odd sense of humor.

Perhaps we’re mad.  Repeating the same mistake (shopping instead of savings), each time hoping to find happiness — but getting just things and weaker finances. 

My guess:  it’s symptomatic of a people who don’t realize that it’s a new era.   America’s future lies not in shopping.  The era of feckless borrowing and spending has ended.  It’s payback time for past shopping; time for finding a new path.

Today’s evidence comes from Glenn Reynolds, the Instapundit.  Perhaps as a tenured law professor he lives in a different world than most Americans, secure and well-paid.

THEY’VE BEEN SERVING WITH DISTINCTION SINCE RIGHT AFTER SEPTEMBER 11, but can we count on the Retail Support Brigade to save America one more time? I’m not sure. With doubts about where the national leadership is taking them and whether it values their sacrifice, and whether it will support them in the crunch, it’s hard for me to recommend re-enlistment at this point. On the other hand, I’ll be spending about the same as last year, but, as usual, mostly online. (26 November 2009)

LOOKING AHEAD to Black Friday. “The real test, though, will not be when the Black Friday numbers come out in a few days. Rather, it will be whether retailers can sustain a decent sales level without phenomenal discounts.” (26 November 2009)

RETAIL SUPPORT BRIGADE SITREP: So the Insta-Daughter and an Insta-Niece braved West Town Mall at 5 a.m. this morning. They report that it was “semi-crowded,” but no better than last year. (27 November 2009)

It’s not just blindness.  He wrote similar things in November 2008 — as the world burned during the worst economic downturn since the 1930’s.  Some people just never learn.  Let’s hope he’s atypical of Americans, or we’re doomed.  Here’s a post from the FM archives, dated 13 December 2008:

—

Summary:  The madness of early 21st century America will baffle future generations.  Esp our determination to spend ourselves to destruction, borrowing to maintain a lifestyle beyond our income.

Our cure requires looking at ourselves, seeing past our optimism and hubris to the causes of our problems:  as Michael Jackson says, the man in the mirror.  These posts illustrate the madness, esp the later ones written in the midst of a destructive cycle of debt deflation whose end we cannot see.

Here we see posts by Glen Reynolds, the Instapundit — a sample of a great many such posts.  I use them not because he is foolish (he’s not), but because he is an intelligent man — a law professor at the University of Tennessee — who runs one of the most important nodes on the Internet.  His views are influential, his access to information beyond those of almost everybody.  As such he illustrates an important aspect of America’s problems.

This is astonishing, cheering for exactly the opposite of what an over-indebted, over-shopped nation needs.  Perhaps he considers these to be funny.  Perhaps they are, just like passing out booze at meetings of Alcohol Anonymous — and cheering the resulting drunkenness.

Think of these posts when next you read that our problems result from corrupt or stupid leaders, or evil plutocrats.  These posts reflect our attitudes.  They reflect an important aspect of America.

Perhaps you too find these funny, or trivial.  Bookmark this post.  In a few years, after going through the economic destruction already descending upon us, I suspect the madness of these will become obvious to all.

The Instapundit urges salvation through shopping, a peculiarly American insanity

Click here to read the rest of this article.

We are withdrawing from Afghanistan (eventually, but not now)

A blast from the past for your weekend reading, a reminder from the FM archives (21 April 2008) of how the military dangles future toop withdrawals before us — like a peasant does before a mule.  Keep this in mind when listening to Obama’s specious promises this week.  A few more troops, then victory and withdrawal.  It’s just a few Friedman Units away. 

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Flash update, official confirmation of my forecast:  “U.S. eyes Afghan drawdown starting by 2013“, Reuters, 28 November 2009:

“The United States should be able to begin scaling back its troop presence in Afghanistan from a post-surge peak by 2013, according to an assessment by the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan.”

—

As our Long War continues with no end in sight, it is easy to lose perspective on the course of the war.  This brief survey illustrates one aspect of the Afghanistan Campaign.  Like Iraq, it began with fantastic success — then has slowly deteriorated as our 4GW foes evolve and their “home court” advantage works against us.  Note the links at the end to more information about the Afghanistan War.

The following results from a quick search of the Stratfor database.   My thanks to Stratfor, provider of a premier private geopoltical reporting and archive service.  They make this kind of research fast and easy.
 
Afghanistan: War ‘Over,’ But Combat To Continue, 5 May 2003

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld announced May 1 that “major combat activity” in Afghanistan has ended. However, the events of recent months have shown that conflict — though no longer on the scale of Operation Anaconda — is far from past. If Rumsfeld’s announcement is followed by a draw-down in combat forces and support, the United States will be left more vulnerable to attacks by Islamist militants and warlords.

 NATO Troop Strength In Afghanistan, 4 February 2004

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) seeks to more than double its presence in Afghanistan, the Frankfurter Allgemeine daily reported on Feb. 4. According to the German daily, NATO will consider plans to raise the number of troops from the current 6,000 to 14,000. … another detachment of 12,000 U.S.-led forces, separate from the NATO-led peacekeepers, is engaged in tracking down Taliban militants and their jihadist allies in southern and eastern Afghanistan. There are plans to put these troops under NATO control and to construct an Afghan headquarters for Eurocorps, a five-nation military alliance.

Afghanistan: Fewer Troops After Election?, 16 April 2004

Click here to read the rest of this article.

The Trinity of modern war at work in Afghanistan (more evidence that amnesia is a required to be an American geopol expert)

Surprise!  We’re recruiting milita to help in Afghanistan.  It’s a new tactic, just as it was in Iraq and Vietnam.  It’s a direct violation of the COIN manual (FM 3-24), with its tiresome emphasis on building the legitimacy of the local puppet government.  But then that was just a facade anyway, a trick to build support for the war.

Some of the recent articles about supporting militia in Afghanistan:

1. “Afghan Militias Battle Taliban With Aid of U.S.“, New York Times, 21 November 2009 – Superficial.
2. “US pours millions into anti-Taliban militias in Afghanistan“, The Guardian, 22 November 2009 — Reminder of our 1980’s efforts to build militia.
3. “All Politics Is Tribal – Obama’s Afghanistan strategy should team our soldiers with their militias“, Fred Kaplan, Slate, 23 November 2009 – Cheerleading.

Despite these largely amnesiac articles, use of militia is a core component of America’s standard playbook for insurgency warfare.  As described in this 13 July 2009 article from the FM archives.

The trinity of modern warfare at work in Afghanistan

Clausewitz spoke of a trinity of the people, the government, and the military.  The rise to dominance of fourth generation warfare has made this conceptually useless, providing only a perspective from which to see how the world has changed.  During the past 60 years a new trinity of modern war has emerged for armies fighting in foreign lands.  Chet Richards discovered it, looking at the similarities between the Vietnam and Iraq Wars — but it applies to most foreign wars. 

Modern armed forces, whether of developed or undeveloped nations, tend to rely on a trinity of operational methods.  None of these are new of course (almost nothing is new in war, it’s all a matter of combinations and emphasis).

1. Popular front militia
2. Massive firepower on civilians
3. Sweep and destroy missions

Also interesting is that armies tend to re-discover these 3 methods, dressing them up in the fancy terminology befitting radical innovations.  Let’s take a quick look at each.

(1)  Popular Front Militia

Popular front militia were a core component of our fighting in Southeast Asia, but when we recruit local militia in Iraq it’s COIN — new, new, new.   And of course that’s a staple of our fighting in Afghanistan, as seen in these posts by Joshua Foust at Registan (an essential site for following the increasingly important conflicts in Central Asia):

Click here to read the rest of this article.

FM newswire for 28 November, hot articles for your morning reading

Today’s broadsheet from the FM website pressroom with three sections of hot news.

1. Links to interesting news and analysis
2. Quote of the day: Louis Napoleon is an example for us
3. Feature article:  “Circular reasoning Afghanistan” by Yglesias
4. Plus, an Afterword

Also — you can now subscribe, receiving posts by email — see the box on the upper right.

(1)  Today’s links

1. “Girl Crazy: Women Who Suffer from Gender Disappointment”, Ruth Shalit Barrett, Elle, 9 October 2009 — More evidence that girls are the preferred gender in 21st America.  See the text here.
2. An example of American justice at its best:  “Hero of the Day: Jeffrey Spinner“, blog of the Financial Times, 25 November 2009 — Also see the subscription-only Newsday article.
3. “How some retired military officers became well-paid consultants“, USA Today, 17 November 2009 — Paid by us (twice) and the defense industry; how sweet life is!
4. “Extreme Risks“, Watson Wyatt (global consultancy on HR and financial matters), 23 November 2009 — “we identify and rank 15 extreme risks that would have a high impact on global economic growth and asset returns if they occurred.”

Today’s power graphic:  Federal Tax Dollars, Visual Economics, 12 November 2009 - A colorful look at federal tax payments versus allotments by State.

(2)  Quote of the day:  Louis Napoleon is an example for us

Feckless foreign policy is a commonplace in history, adopted by incompetents at many times and places.  Like that player at the game of Empires, Louis Napoleon.  History repeats itself, differently every time.

How long will all American Presidents be War Presidents?

Summary:  President Obama has decided to expand the Af-Pak War and accept the Nobel Peace Prize, certifying himself to future generations as hypocritical scum, we must remember that he promised exactly this outcome.  And we elected him, so the responsibility is ours.  Like so many things, this was forecast on the FM website, as seen in this post of 21 March 2008. 

The Presidential campaign rolls on in the seventh year since 9/11, with the only debate about the Long War being in which nations America should fight. We see this even the speeches of the most “liberal” candidate, Senator Barack Obama.

I recommend reading “The World Beyond Iraq”, his speech about national security given at Fayetteville, NC on 19 March 2008.  He describes his plan for withdrawal from Iraq, but only to focus our efforts on Afghanistan … and Pakistan.  This is doubling down when losing, known as the “gambler’s ruin.” {revisions to this are in red)  This speech is a rhetorical masterpiece, providing strong and specific promises.  He gets right to the point…

… while we have a General who has used improved tactics to reduce violence, we still have the wrong strategy.   As General Petraeus has himself acknowledged, the Iraqis are not achieving the political progress needed to end their civil war…. When you have no overarching strategy, there is no clear definition of success.  Success comes to be defined as the ability to maintain a flawed policy indefinitely. Here is the truth: fighting a war without end will not force the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future. And fighting in a war without end will not make the American people safer.

So when I am Commander-in-Chief, I will set a new goal on Day One: I will end this war.  Not because politics compels it.  Not because our troops cannot bear the burden- as heavy as it is.  But because it is the right thing to do for our national security, and it will ultimately make us safer.

In order to end this war responsibly, I will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq.  We can responsibly remove 1 to 2 combat brigades each month.  If we start with the number of brigades we have in Iraq today, we can remove all of them 16 months.  After this redeployment, we will leave enough troops in Iraq to guard our embassy and diplomats, and a counter-terrorism force to strike al Qaeda if it forms a base that the Iraqis cannot destroy.  What I propose is not – and never has been – a precipitous drawdown.  It is instead a detailed and prudent plan that will end a war nearly seven years after it started.

My plan to end this war will finally put pressure will finally put pressure on Iraq’s leaders to take responsibility for their future.  Because we’ve learned that when we tell Iraq’s leaders that we’ll stay as long as it takes, they take as long as they want.  We need to send a different message.  We will help Iraq reach a meaningful accord on national reconciliation.  We will engage with every country in the region – and the UN – to support the stability and territorial integrity of Iraq.  And we will launch a major humanitarian initiative to support Iraq’s refugees and people.  But Iraqis must take responsibility for their country.  It is precisely this kind of approach – an approach that puts the onus on the Iraqis, and that relies on more than just military power – that is needed to stabilize Iraq.

But in 21st century America, ending one war means shifting our focus to another war. We face so many enemies, and force is our primary tool.

… That is why my presidency will shift our focus. Rather than fight a war that does not need to be fought, we need to start fighting the battles that need to be won on the central front of the war against al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Click here to read the rest of this article.

FM newswire for 27 November, hot articles for your morning reading

Today’s broadsheet from the FM website pressroom.  There are 3 sections, all with hot news.  Also — you can now subscribe, receiving posts by email — see the box on the upper right.

1. Links to interesting news and analysis
2. Doomster nonsense of the day: China May Demand Physical Gold
3. Feature article of the day, proof that science report is improving
4. Plus, an Afterword

(1)  Today’s links

1. “Teabagging Michelle Malkin“, Matt Taibbi, True/Slant, 15 April 2009 — Typical Taibbi.  Funny, coarse, insightful.
2. “Freedom of information, my okole…“, Willis Eschenbach, Climate Change, 24 November 2009 — Another excellent narrative of the climate change debate, using the hacked CRU emails to filling in the missing pieces of the puzzle. It’s a must-read for anyone interested in the debate.  True believers will avoid this like vampires do garlic.
3. “Negative Equity Report”, First American Corelogic, 23 November 2009 — reported at Calculated Risk.   Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages account for nearly 28% of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide, 13 million housing units.
4. Today’s hidden history lesson:  “Roosevelt’s Last Days – Did cancer kill FDR?“, Barron H. Lerner, Slate, 24 November 2009

(2)  Doomster nonsense of the day:  China May Demand Physical Gold

The Internet allows fringe “news” sources to flourish for every delusion.  Today’s reading is from The Public Intelligence Blog:  “China May Demand Physical Gold – Special from our sources in Asia“, 26 November 2009 — Excerpt:

Gold could be about to get disorderly also as it approaches the key $1200 call option strike. The strong rumour is the large $1200oz Dec call owner is the Peoples Bank of China. Gold traders increasingly believe that China will force physical delivery of 2.8moz of gold instead of the usual cash settlement. My contacts suggest short-term mayhem may be about to break out in gold for a few days as those who have sold the call and get exercised scramble to buy physical for delivery. To put this in context 2.8moz is around 80 tonnes of gold. Yes, it’s that big and you can see why there is short-covering everywhere in gold.

What will America look like after this recession?

A holiday classic from the archives of the FM website, originally posted 18 March 2008.  Timely, if not relevant to the Thanksgiving holiday.  Also — you can now subscribe, receiving posts by email — see the box on the upper right.

This series of articles speculations about our future based on history and the almost inevitable re-balancing of global economy (i.e., end of unconstrained borrowing by US).  The elections are only three eight months away, perhaps our last chance to influence these developments.

I.  This is a government failure on two levels, despite many warnings from major institutions that the US could not forever borrow without inevitable and painful consequences.

1. The US government let it happen, failure of the massive government regulatory apparatus.
2. The US government, esp. the Fed staff, did not model this scenario, despite the warnings.  The Fed’s legendary “500 PhD economists” and their supercomputers could have provided valuable analysis of alternative steps to mitigate this financial and soon-to-be economic collapse.  “Surprise is an event that takes place in the mind of a commander” – and represents a personal failure.

As a result of these two failures, US government decision-making has lapsed into a failure-prone mode:  brain-storming by senior leaders.  Old men, whose operational experience was either long-ago or zero (e.g., academics and politicos), operating under time pressure, without research and advice from professional staff.

II.  The insane borrowing by US businesses and households took place in plain sight, to widespread applause. No child will be christened “Alan” in America for the next 5 generations – and rightly so — but in a Republic the ultimate responsibility for such folly is ours.

Click here to read the rest of this article.

More about the swine flu pandemic: about Cassandras

Summary:  Another in a series of posts about the swine flu hysteria (links to other chapters appear at the end).  This is an apt time to look at another would-be Cassandra, as the World Health Organization has noted “Signs That Swine Flu Has Peaked” (New York Times, 21 November 2009).

The Internet overflows with experts of various sorts predicting disaster.  Folks running websites uncritically repeat these stories without investigate.  The Internet can makes us smarter, but often makes us dumber.  Here’s another case study, with powerful lessons.

Henry L Niman has impressive credentials, listed in the bio of his website Recombinomics.   He had an article published in Nature (1980, here).  He has several articles posted to the NaturePrecedings website (non-peer reviewed).   His warnings about pandemics appear on many websites.   A simple Google search shows 178 thousand entries (certainly inaccurate, but indicates a wide presence nonetheless).  He has issued a stream of warnings about the flu, receiving much attention. 

The folks posting his warnings seldom look at his past warnings.  Doing so suggests skepticism is warranted.  This simple step would help make the Internet a more powerful tool for us all.