http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/when-will-global-oil-production-peak-here-is-the-answer/ A discussion of geopolitics, broadly defined, from an American's perspective. Fri, 16 May 2008 05:03:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/when-will-global-oil-production-peak-here-is-the-answer/#comment-1175 andy Tue, 04 Mar 2008 04:56:29 +0000 http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2007/11/01/when-will-global-oil-production-peak-here-is-the-answer/#comment-1175 this is a bunch of huey!!! i work in an industry that spends hundreds of millions of dollars researching this stuff and can say with certainty that in two oil deposits alone that have just been found, only one is just beginning to be tapped into, there is enough oil to supply the world for over 200 years. thats just two deposits!!! there is much more out there yet!! . . <em>Fabius Maximus replies: That is nice news. Unfortunately your forecasts are contradicted by every major source of which I am aware. IEA, EIA, the major oil industry consultants (even CERA is not that optimistic). If you are speaking of unconventional sources (e.g., bitumen, shale, heavy oil) the issue is not the resource size, but the feasible rate of production. For example, Alberta has vast fields of bitumen (aka oil sands), but by 2020 will at best be producing 5 million b/day (probably optimistic, considering the water and energy required to do so exceeds available sources-- and the environmental impacts would be horrific). That will not even offset the decreased production of current N. American fields, let alone provide for growth.</em> this is a bunch of huey!!! i work in an industry that spends hundreds of millions of dollars researching this stuff and can say with certainty that in two oil deposits alone that have just been found, only one is just beginning to be tapped into, there is enough oil to supply the world for over 200 years. thats just two deposits!!! there is much more out there yet!!
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Fabius Maximus replies: That is nice news. Unfortunately your forecasts are contradicted by every major source of which I am aware. IEA, EIA, the major oil industry consultants (even CERA is not that optimistic). If you are speaking of unconventional sources (e.g., bitumen, shale, heavy oil) the issue is not the resource size, but the feasible rate of production. For example, Alberta has vast fields of bitumen (aka oil sands), but by 2020 will at best be producing 5 million b/day (probably optimistic, considering the water and energy required to do so exceeds available sources– and the environmental impacts would be horrific). That will not even offset the decreased production of current N. American fields, let alone provide for growth.

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