Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger?
Why has starting wars – aggressive wars, for conquest – usually proved fruitless in the modern era, the past few centuries? Perhaps back to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Perhaps because so often the aggressors know so little about their targets, their designated victims. Japan’s elites knew little about America in 1941 – neither its industrial strength nor the determination of its people. Their education proved expensive.
Now the drums of war are beating as hawks urge war with Iran. How much do we know about Iran? Some recent works suggest that we, as so often true in life, know far less than we believe.
First, four articles by the provocative “Spengler”, writing for the Asia Times. The first three paints a picture of a dying regime, dangerous to strike out while it still has strength. The last describes a sad, even pitiful, picture of Iran’s inner life. This is a nation than in a single generation has seen its fertility rate drop by 90%, from 6.5 to .66 – amongst the lowest in the world.
- The demographics of Radical Islam (23 August 2005)
- Demographics and Iran’s imperial design (13 September 2005)
- Why Iran is dying for a fight (13 November 2007)
- Jihadis and whores (21 November 2006)
Next is a subscription only article from the November 9 issue of The New Republic, discussed briefly in Spengler’s 13 November article above. Well worth the read.
Infertile Crescent: Iran, Denmark of tomorrow?, by Philip Jenkins
How to respond to a threatening but dying nation? Containment seems to me the preferred method, but this is a complex question. Any thoughts on this – please comment below.
The context of this is demographics, if not the destiny of nations than a major contributor to it. China’s bumper crop of single men – with no local women to marry. Iran with a surplus of unemployed men, followed by a population collapse. These are the hidden trends that shape the world, in difficult to predict ways.
For more information about Iran
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War with Iran (9 November 2007)
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Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger? (13 November 2007)
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Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran. (22 December 2007)
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Will we bomb Iran, now that Admiral Fallon is gone? (17 March 2008)
Well given that Iran hasn’t started a war for, what, 200 years. Doesn’t look like anything to worry about.
The demographic numbers look funny. Not sure where the 0.66 for Iran is. Neither the UN or CIA numbers are anywhere near that (CIA is 1.71, UN 2.04). This has also been a deliberate Gov’t policy, by increasing family planning and contraception over the last 10 years or so.
From wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran
“In 1993, Iran dropped certain maternity benefits for couples who had more than three children. According to the BBC, Iran is believed to be the only country where men and women are required to attend classes about contraception before they can obtain a marriage license.
In addition, Iran has made both condoms and contraceptive pills widely available. Contraceptive pills are available at pharmacies across Iran, and the government gives away condoms at health clinics around the country.”
Another (and more logical) interpretation would be that they are trying to get their population down to maintain a decent standard of living when the oil runs out.
The neo-crazies are really trying to talk up the militaristic, expansionist Iran spin. Trouble is that there is not a shred of evidence supporting it. If they were really like that then:
- Their armed forces would be very much larger. Turkey would smash them to bits, let alone nuclear armed Pakistan.
- They would by trying to increase their population, not reduce it.
- The US would already have a carrier group at the bottom of the Persian Gulf.
- The US would be negotiating with Iran to get its captured 150,000 soldiers in Iraq back.
Doesn’t add up.
Comment by oldskeptic — 13 November 2007 @ 5:22 am
Good analysis there OS. Interestingly the points about population control, linked to future prosperity, including the last paragrpahs, also applies to the new World SuperPower that’s well along the road to supplantly the USA, China.
What I find irronic, is that Americans themselves maybe the very last to realise when they’ve been overtaken, and quite likely by more than one world entity. The good news being that if the US can get through this era of fatefull, inexorable, and self expidited decline intact, “the average schmuck,” from NJ, to Bejing, might actually end up far better off for that.
Maximillian
Comment by maximilliangc — 15 November 2007 @ 12:58 am