Not to worry! From Lewis H. Lapham’s “Notebook” column in the May 2008 issue of Harper’s magazine. An observation upon sight of a sad gentlement at January’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland:

“Even if America were to be reclassified as a Third World country, he would discover that Third World countries are by no means as unpleasant or as dangerous as they can be made to seem by the editorial writers at the New York Times. The girls are good-looking, the golf courses up to the standard of those in Palm Springs, the nightclubs trendy, the secret police efficient and courteous, the income spread between the haves and have-nots in line with the one to which he was accustomed here at home.”

FM, help me out a little here on a characterization. The air is thick with declining empire analogies. If we stay within a Roman frame of reference, is GWB more of a Nero or a Calligula type? He has been far more than a passive observer to this decline and fall, that is certain.
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Fabius Maximus: That the air is filled with panic at the minor events to date shows how even a paper cut seems like the end of the world to a pampered aristocrat. Nothing of significance has happened yet. The Roman frame of reference is perhaps apt, but useless on specifics. The Empire lasted for centuries after Calligula. Comparison of Bush to Calligula is disturbing, showing quite a lack of awareness how bad things can get.

Mexico is going to invade the US, not later than 2048, reclaiming its lost half and even going beyond that.

General Grant wrote that: “The Southern rebellion was largely the outgrowth of the Mexican war. Nations, like individuals, are punished for their transgressions. We got our punishment in the most sanguinary and expensive war of modern times.” (source)

That might be true, but remember that a thief is not only punished he is also forced to return the stolen goods, the Americans were punished for the “most unjust” (Grant’s words) war but they did not return the spoils of that war (land that is full with gold & oil).

The Mexicans paid dearly because they “shed American blood upon the American soil,” but actually they didn’t and under the rule of Double Jeopardy they are more than entitled to do so now. The founding fathers emulated the Roman Republic, but now, 250 years later, one should start to prepare for the invading barbarians who after making themselves indispensable for the functioning of the Empire will move on mass and take all for themselves.

The US Army cannot even invade Iran at this point; any action against it would have to be done by the navy and air force, because the army is effectively kaput! I doubt very much that it can invade the homeland of a sizeable part of its own soldiers!

FM wrote: “This is might not be a cyclical event, but a historical inflection point: the end of the post-WWII economic and geopolitical regime. That would be serious, but should not be confused with Armageddon. Life will go on.”

Life always goes on, that is of little consolation to the dead! Not only the US will not survive but the whole European/Western/Liberal/Capitalist/Democratic tradition/culture/history of the last 500 years, what I call the European Supremacy, is going down the drain, not as the result of the sub-prime debt but because of ultra-long-term historical trends.

Not to mention that Mexico’s oil production would be rather less “reliable” if they were engaged in a hot war (or a prolonged guerrilla war) with the United States.
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Fabius Maximus replies: I believe this overstates the situation. Cantarell is in steep decline; total production for Mexico is slowly declining. As you note, this results largely from insufficient re-investment of funds. That is an easily fixed problem, if they have the political will to do so. New funds could increase production in 5 - 10 years. The public data is insufficient to determine a peaking date for them given adequate funding, let alone “investment/exploration won’t yield significantly large finds”, but from what I have seen peaking seems very likely during the next two decades.

The poor whites who are crashing in their buddies’ basements because they can’t make alimony payments — and the poor blacks who can’t even get hired at McDonald’s — *they* are the ones who will be willing to do anything possible to strike back. They would support official war … or less organized means of nastiness.

Actually, Bismark’s stratagem for pacifying the humiliated French Third Republic was to encourage it to colonize North Africa. For reasons explored on John Robb’s blog, there is quite a lot of global guerrilla activity going on in Mexico right now, which would provide the basis for an unpleasant welcome to any such American expedition. For reasons explored on the Oil Drum, Mexico’s oil production seems to have peaked.

A serious issue that US citizens will have at the next years is that, with the lower purchase power of the dolar, the US wages will be third world wages. That will be worse to US citizens psyche than lose the status of only superpower. So, I guess the Mexico’s labour will be a strong issue at future political campaings. And yes, that is not a nice way to treat one of yours major and reliable sources of oil. But I fear that, soon or later, someone will have the idea that the US oil’s problem can be solved with military conquest. South of Rio Grande. That will be less nice.
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Fabius Maximus replies: I doubt the US dollar will decline so that US wages are like those of the 3rd world. Our infrastructure and productivity are far greater, which will support higher wages. And invading Mexico would be nuts, too nuts I suspect even for the neo-cons. Not too mention the millions of Hispanic people in the US who retain emotional ties to Mexico.

As for “economic war”, I am not a fan of describing so many forms of confict as “war”. War is a special and horrible thing, and broadening the concept blurs this red line — and perhaps encourages us to lightly cross it.

As for Greenspan, when this is over I suspect no American child will be christened “Alan” for several generations.