Of course, we must be wary of all that can destroy whatever progress civilization has made, especially those fifth columns and opportunists found in basically every nation; viz. the warmongers, right-wing fascists (I’m not talking about Bill Lind!) war profiteers, amongst others.

Though I’m not American,I pray for the happiness and well-being of her citizens.

At any point in history one can run this exercise and conclude all is lost, which is why I refer to it as a nightmare. There is no mention of positive trends, no recognition that trends can change. It is just a dirge, another person walking around with a sign saying “The end is near.”

People with such views are always with us. They provide a useful warning that prosperity and liberty — even civilization itself — are fragile things, that must be rebuilt with every generation. They are society’s guard against complacency, reminding us that “this too will pass away.”

So many Benjamins to be made out of the military-industrial complex. Reaps in profits for the movie industry and Disneyland as well. Well, at least for the next two or three generations of Americans.
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Fabius Maximus: Perhaps. Drawing trendlines and projecting them into the future is an easy method of forecasting. It is almost always wrong over long periods, and misses ALL major inflection points. History is made by those periods when trends change.

The nearest anaology (weakly) is the USSR. Despite that, the differences are so immense as to make any comparisons meaningless. The USSR went quietly, the military/industrial complex folded quickly and (with a few noises here and there) quietly. Russia flirted with gangstarism (heavily subsidised by the US & UK), but, (I should say as usual) when it really hit the fan they started to come back. Long way to go but the signs are (despite negative US and UK comments) are actually positive. Good luck to them and maybe, just maybe, an important part of the EU is (say) 10 years?

The US is so different. The Military/Industrial/Financial complex is not going to go down quirtly, it will fight to the last dollar (and maybe life) of every US and World citizen.

On the financial side it will use every dollar, squander every normal persons’ $ to try to (failingly) hold up the financial system design created in the 80’s. There are too many people in the elite with too many vested intertests to let it go. Foreign money will dry up so normal US people will be raided (actually this is happening right now).

The M/I industry will not go down quietly as well. Again too many vested interests. They will buy their F-22’s, FCS, subs, etc, whatever. They will stay in Iraq for much longer than anyone here expects, they will have to be totally beaten militarily and totally broke before they will move. They will continue to expand war in all dimensions, space is the growing frontier at the moment, they will not back down.

American citizens will suffer, but that will not matter. The entire political system is against them. Those that try to dissent will end up in the ‘new’ detention centres that have been built, or the ‘normal’ prisons (which look increasingly to an outsider like concentration camps anyway). Torture will be authorised against US citizens (actually it already has been), not to get any information, but as the usual tactic to spread terror and fear in the population. The normal police system will continue the ‘take the gloves off’ approach that it has started to show (children handcuffed, etc). The ’special forces’ will be much worse.

Now there is another 5-15 years of this to go through. Neither Clinton (who agrees with this) or Obama (who sort of doesn’t maybe) will be elected because they are frankly unelectable. McCain will be the next President, his one and only only threat is if Gore steps in, but I expect Gore will not, or will die.

Yes the Democrats will control the Senate and Reps but that will make no difference, because their top boys agree with this approach (hey look at them they are all millionaires). So nothing will change.

As the money runs out, the Govt will become more repressive and more expansionist. Yes there will be more wars, yes there will be more repression internally.

Yes there are risks of another Liebensraum moment (lets face it, that was Iraq so the precedent is set), but for money and resources, not land. Yes there are risks of a nuclear war. The US is not going to stop ‘containing’ (translated setting up for a first strike) Russia and China. In fact it is not going to stop any military move that have been happening over the last 20 years or so. Yes it will back the nutcases (not the smart and sane) in Israel to the hilt.

No the US, come whatever election, will keep right on the great neo-con plan (who are much smarter than most people think, as they know the difference between direct power and setting the agenda and creating the mental model and language that everyone conforms to .. the entire US elite conforms to the neo-con agenda now.. heck they are Trotkyists after all they know how to do this).

A military disaster and a Depression is not a disaster for them, it is an opportunity. Think more like Hitler (but don’t overuse the analogies, there are a few similarities only), the ultimate Trotkyist in many ways. Chaos is an opportunity, chaos created by you is an even better opportunity.

1. Rising Commodity Costs - energy costs have gone through the roof. Diesel is over $4 a gallon now. My home electric bill - for a 2200 square foot house built four years ago - approaches $500 a month despite some drastic measures to cut energy consumption. Add in rising costs of food - because crude oil is used in many feeds and fertilizers, not to mention transportation costs from one point to another (or harvesting costs for grain).

2. Rising Fees and Taxes - my wastewater and sewage bill went up %15 in January. The state I live in is in fiscal crises and have been raising fees and taxes and cutting services. This also takes a great deal of money out of consumers hands, and causes resentment - how many times have you heard the complaint “I’m paying taxes or fees for things I don’t use or get any benefit from.”

The collapse of the US dollar is now inevitable. Irregardless of the Fed, the world must abandon the dollar or continue to import inflation and lose money on dollar denominated assets. This mass selloff of bonds, dollars, and securities will create inflation, as will the skyrocketing price of imported oil and manufactured goods.

As one of the comments notes, at least this will solve our debt problems. We will simply pay off our debts with worthless paper. The US economy is no longer a manufacturing power, so at best it will take years to rebuild the US standard of living we enjoy today.

That’s bad enough, but we are also at war. When the Soviet Union collapsed, they could not even afford to remove their military units from East Germany. So what happens to our Armies in Iraq and Afghanistan?

If we attempt to stay in Iraq, we will be paying alot more in real terms to support our military, in addition to paying our soldiers in useless dollars. Unless some other power wants to subsidize our occupation of Iraq. If we pull out, Iran and Shia Iraq will form a new Persian Empire, with nuclear weapons.

As for economic solutions, there are two obvious ways out. One is National money like Lincoln’s greenback or Hitler’s Reichemarks. The other is to simply raise taxes on the rich.

I’ve heard the term “third way” before although I dont claim to know exactly what it means. When you say the US could become like the EU, do you mean a Parliamentary system, or a larger public sector?
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Fabius Maximus replies: Nothing is inevitable, except death. We are just speculating about the future, an error-prone by necessary exercise. Broad, certain statements are totally inappropriate here — except by God (except for a bit of rhetoric, to spice the discussion). Nor are our options so limited as you describe; please see my past posts for a wider range of alternatives. For example, deflation is as likely as inflation. Last, I meant that the US seems likely to become more like the EU structurally following nationalization of the finanical and health care sectors.

You do have one huge advantage compared with other nations who have found themselves in debt. You can pay in your own currency. In any negotiation with creditors the threat of inflation can be used. How would say, the Chinese, rid themselves of $500 billion worth of US bonds if they can only find buyers who are willing to pay 15 cent to the dollar. Not an option for nations who need foreign currency to pay creditors.

As for the consumer.
Yes they are tapped out. Over a prolonged period the US consumers have decided to increase present consumption at the expense of future consumption aka borrowing. So they will have to rediscover the virtues of saving but is that so bad in the long run?
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Fabius Maximus: I wish you were right. The immediate borrowing problem in the US is excess business and household debt, not government.

On a longer-term perspective the government is also insolvent. You are looking at government obligations on a “cash basis”, which is statutory fraud in most places because it does not include all liabilities (e.g., promises of pension and medical benefits). Including these the US government’s liabilities are over $50 trillion; including the States pushes the total to even more absurd levels. Since the boomers are already retiring, with not much in aggregate savings, this is rapidly becoming a serious factor.