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	<title>Comments on: The 2 most devastating 4GW attacks on America, and the roots of FM 3-24</title>
	<atom:link href="http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/03/19/4gw-attacks/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/03/19/4gw-attacks/</link>
	<description>A discussion of geopolitics, broadly defined, from an American's perspective.</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:57:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: zenpundit</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/03/19/4gw-attacks/#comment-1393</link>
		<dc:creator>zenpundit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Mar 2008 13:48:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/?p=186#comment-1393</guid>
		<description>Far too many.

The Japanese of the Meji-Taisho-Showa era had a particular difficulty breaking high level deadlocks over policy because by custom, the Emperor did not intervene directly and explicitly in factional disputes. Having no socially ( much less politically) acceptable way to back down, factions were left with flat denial of reality or violence ( assassinations, uprisings or suicide) that would demonstrate the sincerity of their motives. The inability to make strategic decisions of the China quagmire, for example, led the Japanese military to contemplate attacking either the USSR or the United States and Britain. Once the Pacific War turned sour, as with China, the military had no acceptable way to address defeat and surrender, so WWII continued until the atomic bombings forced Hirohito to break tradition.

Around the same time, Stalin's personalized paranoid totalitarianism made it impossible fr Soviet leaders to prepare for the Nazi invasion, despite a wealth of evidence and warnings that an attack was coming.

Then there is George Ball's account of being the lone dissenter in LBJ's inner circle regarding the failure of LBJ's policies in Vietnam and the unwillingness of the Pentagon and the White House to address strategic and policy failure or even accept factual reports.

This appears to be a common problem - Tuchman's March of Folly has other historical examples.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Far too many.</p>
<p>The Japanese of the Meji-Taisho-Showa era had a particular difficulty breaking high level deadlocks over policy because by custom, the Emperor did not intervene directly and explicitly in factional disputes. Having no socially ( much less politically) acceptable way to back down, factions were left with flat denial of reality or violence ( assassinations, uprisings or suicide) that would demonstrate the sincerity of their motives. The inability to make strategic decisions of the China quagmire, for example, led the Japanese military to contemplate attacking either the USSR or the United States and Britain. Once the Pacific War turned sour, as with China, the military had no acceptable way to address defeat and surrender, so WWII continued until the atomic bombings forced Hirohito to break tradition.</p>
<p>Around the same time, Stalin&#8217;s personalized paranoid totalitarianism made it impossible fr Soviet leaders to prepare for the Nazi invasion, despite a wealth of evidence and warnings that an attack was coming.</p>
<p>Then there is George Ball&#8217;s account of being the lone dissenter in LBJ&#8217;s inner circle regarding the failure of LBJ&#8217;s policies in Vietnam and the unwillingness of the Pentagon and the White House to address strategic and policy failure or even accept factual reports.</p>
<p>This appears to be a common problem - Tuchman&#8217;s March of Folly has other historical examples.</p>
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		<title>By: zenpundit</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/03/19/4gw-attacks/#comment-1387</link>
		<dc:creator>zenpundit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Mar 2008 04:21:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/?p=186#comment-1387</guid>
		<description>"If basic social engineering is often beyond our capabilities at home — where our knowledge and tools are considerable — what about our ability to do this in foreign lands, the keystone to modern COIN theory?  For example, before doing info-ops or seeking to alter a society, what must one know about that society?"

Sage point. There is a flip side to this dynamic though and the Moynihan report illustrates it. At times, a society gridlocks around societal taboos, honor systems, perceptions of face etc. that turns fairly mundane policy problems into intractable political ones ( in Moynihan's case, race), Gordian Knots that outsiders immediately see through or can cut through if they get into a position where their action spares the local actors a loss of prestige or status. That last bit should be uppermost when we have to act regarding a sensitive issue, the results must be ones that also leave the locals feeling relieved rather than humiliated.
.
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&lt;em&gt;Fabius Maximus replies:  Interesting idea.  Any examples?&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;If basic social engineering is often beyond our capabilities at home — where our knowledge and tools are considerable — what about our ability to do this in foreign lands, the keystone to modern COIN theory?  For example, before doing info-ops or seeking to alter a society, what must one know about that society?&#8221;</p>
<p>Sage point. There is a flip side to this dynamic though and the Moynihan report illustrates it. At times, a society gridlocks around societal taboos, honor systems, perceptions of face etc. that turns fairly mundane policy problems into intractable political ones ( in Moynihan&#8217;s case, race), Gordian Knots that outsiders immediately see through or can cut through if they get into a position where their action spares the local actors a loss of prestige or status. That last bit should be uppermost when we have to act regarding a sensitive issue, the results must be ones that also leave the locals feeling relieved rather than humiliated.<br />
.<br />
.<br />
<em>Fabius Maximus replies:  Interesting idea.  Any examples?</em></p>
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