“In essence, Moore’s Law and its derivatives predict that any endeavor that is based on information processing will double in speed and halve in price in ~12-18 months. This is true in computing, increasingly true in medicine, eventually will prove to be true in bio-technology, and is already proving to be true in military affairs. As soon as any endeavor becomes primarily about processing information, Moore’s Law applies. Here is my best guess on how this can work on the battlefield; it involves Smart Birds, Smart Bats, and Smart Mosquitoes along with Smart Snakes, Smart Centipedes, and Smart Cockroaches.”

He then lays out the scenario.
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Fabius Maximus replies: These straight-line extrapolations into the future are often wrong. See this: “What Will Life Be Like in the Year 2008?”, Mechanix Illustrated (November 1968), in which the past 40’s year progress in transporation tech was assumed to continue for another 40 years.
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* Computing evolution might already be slowing.
* Evolution of medical tech seems to be accellerating (future generations might consider medicine as invented aprox 2000, before that were just witch doctors).
* There is little evidence that improved tech has improved our ability to fight 4GWs. Perhaps the opposite is true.