We are withdrawing again from Iraq, forever

Summary: a survey of the Stratfor database from 2003 to now shows 21 articles about promises or hints of reducing US forces in Iraq.

Like a trout jumping for the lure, we get excited at each glimpse of the light at the end of the long tunnel that is the Iraq War. Every so often our leaders discuss the possilbility of a drawdown or even withdrawal of our troops from Iraq — contingent on future good news. Since their optimism is delusional, instead our forces have to remain. In fact, we have had to increase US forces as our Coalition allies have gone home.

This is by no means a complete survey of all the “withdrawal soon from Iraq” rumors that have helped maintain US support for the war. The following results from a quick search of the Stratfor database. A more complete survey would be even more heart-breaking.

My thanks to Stratfor, provider of a premier private geopoltical reporting and archive service. They make this kind of research fast and easy.

Update: before talking about withdrawals…

Note how the “Friedman Unit” of six months until we can evaluate progress in Iraq has become obsolete. Now we need even longer units.

I. “How this can end”, Ann Gildroy and Michael O’Hanlon, Washington Post (16 April 2008) — We need 24 months! Excerpt (emphasis added):

That said, continued progress will be far more likely if major reductions in U.S. forces beyond those currently planned await early 2010.

II. “After Action Report – Visit to Iraq“, Barry R McCaffrey (General, US Army, retired), posted on his website (18 December 2008) — O’Hanlon is too optimistic. We need 36 months! Excerpt (bold emphasis added):

We have rapidly decreasing political leverage on the Iraqi factional leadership. It is evident that the American people have no continued political commitment to solving the Iraqi Civil War. The US Armed Forces cannot for much longer impose an internal skeleton of governance and security on 27 million warring people. The US must achieve our real political objectives to withdraw most US combat forces in the coming 36 months leaving in place:

1. A stable Iraqi government.
2. A strong and responsive Iraqi security force.
3. A functioning economy.
4. Some form of accountable, law-based government.
5. A government with active diplomatic and security ties to its six neighboring states.

Two dozen Stratfor articles discussing drawdowns of US troops from Iraq

In fact, as we all know, troop levels have increased over time. But our Presidential candidates promise that our troops will come home, eventually.

Iraq: Schedule For U.S. Troop Reductions Announced (October 19, 2003)

The Department of Defense is working on a plan for the gradual reduction of troops in Iraq from the current 130,000 to 50,000 by mid 2005, the Washington Post reports Oct. 19. The plan, which has yet to be approved by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, proposes a reduction of force-levels to 100,000 by mid-2004.

An unnamed military official said the withdrawal would commence with British and U.S. forces from key cities, beginning with Basra and Mosul. … These plans are predicated upon the understanding that Iraqi security forces, and foreign peacekeepers from other countries will have assumed basic security functions. The projected troop levels for mid-2005, which might even go as low as 40,000, are believed to be sustainable for several years.

Iraq: U.S. Troop Reduction Possibility Unknown (December 23, 2003)

In a Dec. 23 report to Congress, the Bush administration warned that the United States might not be able to reduce its troop presence in Iraq as quickly as originally foreseen. “It is not possible to know at this time either the duration of military operations or the scope and duration of the deployment of the United States armed forces necessary for the full accomplishment of our goals,” the report read.

Iraq: 150,000 U.S. Troops For Elections (December 14, 2004)

Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Dec. 14 that Washington would reduce troops levels in Iraq only when post-election circumstances allow. Myers said 150,000 troops would be in Iraq during the January elections and would remain there until “events on the ground” allow for a reduction in troop levels.

Iraq: Withdrawal Of U.S. Troops? (February 5, 2005)

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said Feb. 4 that 15,000 U.S. troops could be withdrawn from Iraq as a result of the end of the country’s elections. The troop reduction would bring the total number of U.S. troops in Iraq to approximately 135,000.

Iraq: U.S. Troop Reduction? (April 11, 2005)

U.S. military commanders and defense officials said efforts to improve security — including training Iraqi forces and improving fighting against insurgents — in Iraq might allow U.S. troop reduction by early 2006, The New York Times reported April 11. Attacks against coalition forces have fallen to between 30 and 40 a day from a high of 140 per day before the Jan. 30 elections. Officials say between 12,000 and 20,000 insurgents are active.

Iraq: The Possibility of a U.S. Troop Reduction (April 12, 2005)

The New York Times recently reported that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard Meyers believes the U.S. military is “on track” to reduce its troop presence in Iraq in 2006. U.S. officials have hinted at reducing troop strength in Iraq since the Jan. 30 elections there and have said their goal is to hand over security responsibilities for the country to the Iraqis. But this strategy might have less to do with the Pentagon’s confidence in the Iraqi security forces’ professionalism and skill than it does with Washington’s ability to maintain a large occupation force while fighting an insurgency.

The Drawdown and Repositioning of U.S. Forces (July 9, 2005)

The United States will be compelled to significantly reduce the size of its military presence in Iraq starting in 2006. Recruiting shortfalls and the strain of the Iraq campaign on U.S. military operations in the rest of the world will have a serious impact on the ability of the United States to respond to threats elsewhere. To compensate for this and still be able to have an effective military presence in Iraq, the U.S. military will reorganize its forces in the country, causing them to look very different than they do now.

Iraq: 50,000 U.S. Troops Could Depart (September 13, 2005)

As many as 50,000 U.S. troops could be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2005, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said in an interview with The Washington Post published Sept. 13. Talabani added that he would discuss the troop reductions during meetings with U.S. President George W. Bush.

Iraq, U.S.: An Extended Engagement (October 13, 2006)

The U.S. Army is planning to maintain present troop levels in Iraq through 2010 in case they are needed, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker said Oct. 11. Such contingency planning is a perfectly normal thing for the Army to do. However, the timing of Schoomaker’s announcement raises some questions and highlights political tensions inside the Pentagon.

Iraq: Searching for a U.S. Exit Strategy (November 2, 2005)

… the internal Iraqi debate over the future of U.S. forces in the country is heating up, with {Iraqi President} Talabani, Ahmed Chalabi and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani all beginning to stake out their opinions on the matter. These statements are also a signal from Iraqi leaders to the United States that both sides need to work out an arrangement that can balance their security and legitimacy needs — and soon. Washington will use this opportunity to put forth its preferences in terms of an exit strategy.

U.S.: Iraqis Ready For U.S. Withdrawal? (November 30, 2005)

Iraqi forces should be sufficiently trained to allow a U.S. troop reduction in 2006, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Nov. 29. U.S. President George W. Bush said the decision to pull out troops would be based on whether U.S. military commanders in Iraq believe Iraqis are ready to fight the insurgency.

Iraq: Reduction In U.S. Troops Announced (December 23, 2005)

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld announced Dec. 23 the first reduction of U.S. troop levels in Iraq. Rumsfeld told troops in Iraq that President George W. Bush had authorized new cuts to bring troop levels below the 138,000 baseline. He did not specify an exact number, but Pentagon officials said as many as 7,000 troops could be withdrawn sometime in 2006.

Iraq, U.S.: Reduction In Troops By 2008? (December 6, 2006)

By the end of 2008, all U.S. combat brigades subject to developments on the ground that are deemed unnecessary for force protection could be out of Iraq, Iraq Study Group chair Lee Hamilton said Dec. 6. He added that special forces will continue targeting al Qaeda.

U.S.: Troop Drawdown In 2009? (August 19, 2007)

U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to call for a gradual reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq by allowing the 25,000 troops deployed there as part of a surge operation to return to the United States at the end of their tours, ABC News reported Aug. 19, citing an unnamed White House spokesman. The drawdown would begin in 2009.

Iraq: U.S. General Considering Withdrawals (September 7, 2007)

Top U.S. commander in Iraq Gen. David Petraeus is considering the withdrawal of around 4,000 troops from Iraq in early 2008, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported Sept. 7, citing senior U.S. officials. Petraeus reportedly will support the withdrawal of one brigade if the troop reduction does not threaten “recent gains” made in the war.

U.S., Iraq: President Bush Announces Troop Reductions (September 13, 2007)

President Bush announced Sept. 13 in an Oval Office address to the nation that he will order the U.S. military to draw down by 5,700 the number of troops in Iraq by Dec. 25. By July 2008, troops will be reduced from 20 combat brigades to 15. Bush said he has accepted the recommendations of U.S. Army General David Petraeus and U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, and has asked them to update their plan for dealing with Iraq and issue another report to Congress in March 2008. The report will project future troop levels and resource requirements of the war in Iraq. …

Iraq: U.S. Military Unit Leaves (September 28, 2007)

A U.S. military unit withdrew from Iraq on Sept. 28 in accordance with the U.S. administration’s plans to reduce troop levels. The 2,200 marines in the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit are the first to go in a plan meant to drawdown U.S. troop levels in Iraq.

U.S.: Troop Drawdown Plan Is On Schedule (December 22, 2007)

A plan to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Iraq from the current 158,000 to about 100,000 by the end of 2008 is on track, Xinhua reported Dec. 22, citing comments from U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates at a press conference. Gates said that many developments could affect the drawdown plan, and he left open the possibility that the United States might need to send more troops to Afghanistan.

U.S.: Bush, Petraeus Talk Troop Reduction (January 12, 2008)

U.S. President George W. Bush and Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, on Jan. 12 discussed possible troop reduction in Iraq, The Washington Post reported. Bush said the military is “on track” to reduce troops as planned from 20 to 15 combat brigades by midsummer, bringing troop numbers to 130,000. Bush and Petraeus considered scenarios for withdrawing more troops, but agreed it is too soon to make a decision. Long-term success in Iraq will require U.S. involvement beyond his presidency, Bush said.

Iraq, U.S.: Pause In Troop Withdrawals (February 22, 2008)

The United States will temporarily stop pulling troops from Iraq in July or August but hopes to resume withdrawals after assessing the impact of the current drawdown, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Feb. 22. Gates said details of the plan would become clearer when U.S. commander in Iraq Gen. David Petraeus issues recommendations in March.

U.S., Iraq: Pentagon Expects 140,000 U.S. Troops In Iraq After Drawdown (February 25, 2008)

The Pentagon announced that the United States expects to have about 140,000 troops in Iraq after it has completed a planned reduction of combat forces in July, Reuters reported Feb. 25. That means the troop level would still be 8,000 higher than when President George W. Bush ordered a “surge” of extra forces into Iraq in January 2007. Army Lt. Gen. Carter Ham, director of operations for the U.S. military’s Joint Staff, said it was too soon to say whether troop numbers could go below the pre-surge level of 132,000 in 2008. There are currently about 158,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.

U.S.: Troop Presence In Iraq Discussed (March 22, 2006)

U.S. President George W. Bush on March 21 did not reject the possibility U.S troops will maintain a presence in Iraq long after his term ends in 2009. Bush has laid the groundwork of U.S troop reduction by the end of the year, but said a full withdrawal of troops will depend on decisions by future U.S presidents and Iraqi governments.

U.S., Iraq: Petraeus Is Considering Locations For Troop Reductions (April 9, 2008)

U.S. General David Petraeus told Congress on April 9 he is considering four or five locations in Iraq where U.S. troops could be reduced, but not until security issues have been thoroughly examined.

U.S.: Bush Expected To Stop Troop Reductions In Iraq (April 9, 2008)

U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to announce April 10 that he supports Gen. David Petraeus’ recommendation for holding off on troop reductions in Iraq, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported April 9, citing a White House spokeswoman. Bush might also discuss the possibility of shorter tours of duty in Iraq, the spokeswoman said.

U.S.: Combat Tours Shortened Starting August 1 (April 10, 2008)

While there is no letup in U.S. military operations in Iraq planned, U.S. forces will take on targeted raid missions and troop training as Iraqi forces take a greater role, U.S. President George Bush said April 10. Bush also said starting Aug. 1 he will reduce the length of combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan to 12 months, down from the current level of 15 months.

Please add in the comments links to other stories about rumored or promised plans to withdraw US forces from Iraq.

Please share your comments by posting below (brief and relevant, please), or email me at fabmaximus at hotmail dot com (note the spam-protected spelling).

For more information about the Iraq War

1. Situation Report on our Expedition to Iraq (12 November 2006) — Experts tells us that the next six months will be critical, 52 times from February 2003 to May 2007.
2. Archive of links to articles about the Iraq War — My articles, and links to several by Niall Ferguson.
3. Our Goals and Benchmarks for the Expedition to Iraq