The Internet makes us dumber: the Bakken euphoria, a case study

Summary:  A case study of information flow on the Internet, and some conclusions.  Why does the Internet sometimes make us dumber?  How can we use it better?  We will need all the help we can get in the days to come.

The Internet can make us smarter — or dumber.  It depends on how we use it.  This post examines the euphoria over the Bakken Formation, and how it grew, briefly flowered, and died.  It is a case study, showing the flows through the Internet of information and misinformation.

I.  We start at the beginning.  This paper sparked new interest in the potential oil output of this area:  “Origins and Characteristics of the Basin-Centered Continuous Reservoir Unconventional Oil-Resource Base of the Bakken Source System, Williston Basin”, Leigh Price (1999/2000) — Price estimated the Bakken formation may hold as many as 900 billion barrels of oil. He died in August 2000; the study was never published by the USGS.   Here is a link to the paper. 

Price’s paper was both technical and obscure.  For anyone wanting facts about this topic, the North Dakota state website provides a clear statement of the facts: Bakken Formation Reserve Estimates.

As interest in the Bakken formation grew, with drilling of several successful low-output wells, more reports appeared on the Internet. 

II.  Some good:  “The Bakken Trend: Lost Dutchmen Mine of the Oil Patch?“, Steven Ward at Seeking Alpha (22 January 2008) — An excellent description of the history, current work, and prospects of the Bakken Formation.  Ward is an independent oil analyst, formerly with Amoco Oil Company.

III.  Some less so:  “Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x“, Next Energy News (13 February 2008) — Excerpt (bold emphasis added):

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant

IV.  The much-derided mainstream media published an excellent article on this:  “Report on Bakken oil potential expected“, Business Week (7 April 2008)

Now the blogging community had some red meat to chew on!  Which did they focus on?  The wild article by Next Energy, or the boring but factual Business Week story?  The first post I could find was mild.

V.  “The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?“, Gail the Actuary, posted at The Oil Drum (23 April 2008) — An excellent review of what we know, and do not know.

VI.  “Peak Oil Update, 10x increase in US reserves“, Russell W. Steele posted at NC Media Watch (8 April 2008) — A reasonable opening “We have heard a lot about the decline of oil reserves, which are estimates based on current technologies. With new technologies and higher prices, new reserves come on line.”  Then he links to the explosive, exaggerated Next Energy News Story.

 But things quickly spun into fantasy-land.

VII.  “North Dakota Discovery - 200 Bn Bbl Of Oil“, M. Simon posted at Power and Control (9 April 2008) — Also posted at Classical Values.  Note the certainty of his opening line.  Only 400 words later, does he give a caution, before ending on a note of euphoric absurdity — as if low-flow discoveries like this are substantial offsets to the peaking of super-giant fields like Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell.

Two hundred billion barrels of oil have been discovered in North Dakota.

… The first report was a quote from New Energy which often gets things wrong. I’d say the Business Week Report is more reliable.  Here is a technique for Mining Oil. I think the peak oil folks got it wrong. As usual. Capitalism beats the fear mongers. Again.

VIII.  Once the story assumed its mature form, the Instapundit linked to it — posting it in his center ring under his Big Top as “BLACK GOLD. NORTH DAKOTA TEA“.  From this foundation, thousands of blog posts flowered.  Note how the Instapundit often prefers links to folks with no background in the subject under discussion.  That is, outside his own professions, of course.  With legal issues he usually links to experts with credentials. 

IX.  Eventually the US Geological Survey published their long-awaited National Assessment of Oil and Gas Fact Sheet.  “{An} estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.65 billion barrels of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken Formation.”

Conclusions

The Internet links us together into a vast cybernetic organism.  As with the forged documents shown on Sixty Minutes, it disseminates information and insights such that the America seems like a village.  But does the Internet serve us as well with complex events that require more expertise?  The mainstream media, for all their faults, does bring experts into the national discussion — who (at their best) paint issues with some depth.  We see a different dynamic at work as the Internet “processes” recent events in Basra, the “cut cable crisis”, and the Bakken Formation.  Here fact takes second place to emotion, expertise to sensationalism.

It need not be like this.  Most bloggers on such serious subjects have good educations.  Bloggers — we — can take the extra few minutes to locate good sources, and exercise responsibility for our roles before hitting the enter key.

I believe there are difficult times ahead for America.  The Internet can help us, if we use it wisely.  It just magnifies our abilities, our strengths and weaknesses.

Please share your comments by posting below (brief and relevant, please), or email me at fabmaximus at hotmail dot com (note the spam-protected spelling). 

Recommendation:  You might find this post from last week worthwhile reading:  “We are withdrawing again from Iraq, forever“.

Other posts about the Internet:  does it make us smarter or dumber?

1. Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran.  (22 December 2007)
2. Three blind men examine the Iraq Elephant  (6 February 2008)
3. Cable Cut Fever grips the conspiracy-hungry fringes of the web  (7 February 2008)
4. Resolution of the Great Submarine Cable Crisis — and some lessons learned  (8 February 2008)
5. What do blogs do for America?  (26 February)
6. The oddity of reports about the Iraq War  (13 March 2008)
7. Will we bomb Iran, now that Admiral Fallon is gone?  (17 March 2008)
8. More post-Fallon overheating: “6 signs the US may be headed for war in Iran”  (18 March 2008)
9. Euphoria about the Bakken Formation  (10 April 2008)
10. The Internet makes us dumber: the Bakken euphoria, a case study  (15 April 2008)

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