Nigeria, a weak link in the global oil supply

Shell got their money’s worth from this study. Events in Nigeria so far are moving just as the consultants predicted.  That is bad for oil consumers, like us.

“Peace and Security in the Niger Delta“, Conflict Expert Group of WAC Global Services (December 2003)

From a story about this study on National Public Radio:

This 2003 report was commissioned by Shell and written by outside consultants. Since it was first leaked, Shell has not disputed the document’s authenticity, but has said it strongly disagrees with some of the report’s conclusions.  This copy, obtained by National Public Radio, appears to have had some language deleted. … The consultants warned that, without big changes to how the giant company works with the government and the communities of the delta, a discontent delta population could drive Shell out of the oilfields by 2008.

This is a form of political peaking.  Nigeria can produce at current rates for years or decades, but political factors might prevent this.

For more information about Nigeria’s oil production, see Wikipedia.

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Other posts about Peak Oil

1. When will global oil production peak? Here is the answer!
2. More answers about Peak Oil! (or just better phrased questions)
3. Peak Oil, part 3: discussing the solutions
4. Links to articles and presentations of some A-team energy experts
5. Myths about Peak Oil - part I: There are not enough petro-engineers!
6. Good news about Global Oil Production!
7. More good news about Peak Oil, on the demand side
8. The most dangerous form of Peak Oil
9. The three forms of Peak Oil (let’s hope for the benign form) 
10. The world changed last week, with no headlines to mark the news