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	<title>Comments on: Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future</title>
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	<description>A discussion of geopolitics, broadly defined, from an American's perspective.</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:55:31 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Fabius Maximus</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/warn/#comment-2360</link>
		<dc:creator>Fabius Maximus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 May 2008 04:54:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/?p=276#comment-2360</guid>
		<description>Articles indicating that global cooling was a concern in the 1970's (a period without a consensus on the cooling/warming dynamics and forecasts).  The major media articles reflect concerns of major scientists in the debate.


"&lt;a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/173/3992/138" rel="nofollow"&gt;Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate&lt;/a&gt;”, Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen H. Schneider, Science  (July 1971) – Rasool’s work ignited the concerns about global cooling.


Quaternary research (vol 2, #3, 1972) was focused on "The end of the present interglacial."  From the conference summary:

"Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, can be expected within the next few millenia; perhaps even centuries." 

In it was "The end of the present interglacial", G.J. Kukla, R.K. Matthews &#38; J.M. Mitchell.  &lt;a href="http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/quat_res_1972.html#schneider" rel="nofollow"&gt;Here&lt;/a&gt; is what appears to be a fair summary imo, although by a strong supporter of AGW, 

"When comparing the present with previous interglacials, several investigators showed that the present interglacial is in the final phase ... and that if nature were allowed to run its course unaltered by man, events similar to those which ended the last interglacial should be expected soon, possibly within the few next centuries.

"...the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate". 


“&lt;a href="http://www.dirckthenoorman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/Brace.Another.Ice.Age_020173_sciencedigest.pdf" rel="nofollow"&gt;Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age&lt;/a&gt;”, Science Digest (February 1973) – Excerpt:

"Baffin Island, located in the Canadian Arctic, now is covered with snowbanks all year after having been snow free for 30 or 40 years prior to the temperature drop. Pack ice around Iceland has now become a serious hindrance to navigation. Warmth loving animals once found in abundance in the northern part of the American Midwest in the early 1900s are settling further south."


“&lt;a href="http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;Another Ice Age&lt;/a&gt;”, Time (24 June 1974)


“&lt;a href="http://main.pajamasmedia.com/xpress/claudiarosett/documents/Global%20Cooling%20-%20Newsweel%201975.pdf" rel="nofollow"&gt;The cooling world&lt;/a&gt;”, Newsweek (28 April 1975)


“&lt;a href="http://www.dirckthenoorman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/Major.Cooling.Ahead_052175_nyt.pdf" rel="nofollow"&gt;Scientists Ask Why World Climate is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead&lt;/a&gt;”, The New York Times (21 May 1975) – Excerpt:

"Sooner or later a major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable…The drop in mean temperatures since 1950 in the Northern Hemisphere has been sufficient, for example, to shorten Britain’s growing season for crops by two weeks."


“&lt;a href="http://revolution2.us/content/docs/global_cooling/index.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;What's Happening to Our Climate?&lt;/a&gt;”, National Geographic Magazine (November 1976)


“Understanding Climate Change: A program for action”, National Academy of Sciences (1975) -- This is perhaps the most important item, but I cannot find an online version.  Does anybody have one?  There were also associated Congressional hearings, I recall, which resulting in significant funding incrreases for climate science.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Articles indicating that global cooling was a concern in the 1970&#8217;s (a period without a consensus on the cooling/warming dynamics and forecasts).  The major media articles reflect concerns of major scientists in the debate.</p>
<p>&#8220;<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/173/3992/138" rel="nofollow">Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate</a>”, Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen H. Schneider, Science  (July 1971) – Rasool’s work ignited the concerns about global cooling.</p>
<p>Quaternary research (vol 2, #3, 1972) was focused on &#8220;The end of the present interglacial.&#8221;  From the conference summary:</p>
<p>&#8220;Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, can be expected within the next few millenia; perhaps even centuries.&#8221; </p>
<p>In it was &#8220;The end of the present interglacial&#8221;, G.J. Kukla, R.K. Matthews &amp; J.M. Mitchell.  <a href="http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/quat_res_1972.html#schneider" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is what appears to be a fair summary imo, although by a strong supporter of AGW, </p>
<p>&#8220;When comparing the present with previous interglacials, several investigators showed that the present interglacial is in the final phase &#8230; and that if nature were allowed to run its course unaltered by man, events similar to those which ended the last interglacial should be expected soon, possibly within the few next centuries.</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230;the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate&#8221;. </p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.dirckthenoorman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/Brace.Another.Ice.Age_020173_sciencedigest.pdf" rel="nofollow">Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age</a>”, Science Digest (February 1973) – Excerpt:</p>
<p>&#8220;Baffin Island, located in the Canadian Arctic, now is covered with snowbanks all year after having been snow free for 30 or 40 years prior to the temperature drop. Pack ice around Iceland has now become a serious hindrance to navigation. Warmth loving animals once found in abundance in the northern part of the American Midwest in the early 1900s are settling further south.&#8221;</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html" rel="nofollow">Another Ice Age</a>”, Time (24 June 1974)</p>
<p>“<a href="http://main.pajamasmedia.com/xpress/claudiarosett/documents/Global%20Cooling%20-%20Newsweel%201975.pdf" rel="nofollow">The cooling world</a>”, Newsweek (28 April 1975)</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.dirckthenoorman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/Major.Cooling.Ahead_052175_nyt.pdf" rel="nofollow">Scientists Ask Why World Climate is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead</a>”, The New York Times (21 May 1975) – Excerpt:</p>
<p>&#8220;Sooner or later a major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable…The drop in mean temperatures since 1950 in the Northern Hemisphere has been sufficient, for example, to shorten Britain’s growing season for crops by two weeks.&#8221;</p>
<p>“<a href="http://revolution2.us/content/docs/global_cooling/index.html" rel="nofollow">What&#8217;s Happening to Our Climate?</a>”, National Geographic Magazine (November 1976)</p>
<p>“Understanding Climate Change: A program for action”, National Academy of Sciences (1975) &#8212; This is perhaps the most important item, but I cannot find an online version.  Does anybody have one?  There were also associated Congressional hearings, I recall, which resulting in significant funding incrreases for climate science.</p>
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		<title>By: judasnoose</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/warn/#comment-2355</link>
		<dc:creator>judasnoose</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 22:39:45 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>'funded by donations from plutocrats, I heard much leftist doctrine preached'

Of course.  Armand Hammer, Jacob Schiff,Paul Warburg -- there are plenty of plu
tocrats who promoted Communism, especially in other folks' countries.
.
.
&lt;em&gt;Fabius Maximus replies:  that is a very cynical -- and very insightful -- comment!&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8216;funded by donations from plutocrats, I heard much leftist doctrine preached&#8217;</p>
<p>Of course.  Armand Hammer, Jacob Schiff,Paul Warburg &#8212; there are plenty of plu<br />
tocrats who promoted Communism, especially in other folks&#8217; countries.<br />
.<br />
.<br />
<em>Fabius Maximus replies:  that is a very cynical &#8212; and very insightful &#8212; comment!</em></p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous Chris</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/warn/#comment-2354</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 20:39:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I'd quibble with one minor small in your article, namely your mention of global cooling as "a 1970's favorite." This is something of a myth. A small number of papers speculating about global cooling got a lot of press attention in the '70s, but even back then more researchers predicted global warming. A literature survey demonstrating this is summarized here:  "&lt;a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/What-1970s-science-said-about-global-cooling.html" rel="nofollow"&gt;What 1970's science said about global cooling&lt;/a&gt;"
.
.
&lt;em&gt;Fabius Maximus replies:  Not much to this article, except for the reference to "&lt;a href="http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/131047.pdf" rel="nofollow"&gt;THE MYTH OF THE 1970S GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS&lt;/a&gt;", Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connolley, John Fleck, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  Literature searches of 30 - 40 year papers are difficult, esp. on such highly politicized subjects.  Non-consensus papers so easily go down the memory hole, and evaluating them is a subjective process.&lt;/em&gt;
.
&lt;em&gt;I provide additional information on this in a later comment.&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d quibble with one minor small in your article, namely your mention of global cooling as &#8220;a 1970&#8217;s favorite.&#8221; This is something of a myth. A small number of papers speculating about global cooling got a lot of press attention in the &#8217;70s, but even back then more researchers predicted global warming. A literature survey demonstrating this is summarized here:  &#8220;<a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/What-1970s-science-said-about-global-cooling.html" rel="nofollow">What 1970&#8217;s science said about global cooling</a>&#8221;<br />
.<br />
.<br />
<em>Fabius Maximus replies:  Not much to this article, except for the reference to &#8220;<a href="http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/131047.pdf" rel="nofollow">THE MYTH OF THE 1970S GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS</a>&#8220;, Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connolley, John Fleck, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  Literature searches of 30 - 40 year papers are difficult, esp. on such highly politicized subjects.  Non-consensus papers so easily go down the memory hole, and evaluating them is a subjective process.</em><br />
.<br />
<em>I provide additional information on this in a later comment.</em></p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/warn/#comment-2345</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 11:56:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/?p=276#comment-2345</guid>
		<description>I recall an essay in the Atlantic Monthly a few years ago talking about Global Warming's big winners -- namely, Russia, Scandanavia, and Canada. It was fairly interesting, though I lament being unable to find it at the moment.
.
.
&lt;em&gt;Fabius Maximus replies:  You may have a long time to find it, before you need it:  "&lt;a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclimate130.xml" rel="nofollow"&gt;Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict&lt;/a&gt;", The Telegraph (30 April 2008) -- Excerpt: 

"Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions."&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I recall an essay in the Atlantic Monthly a few years ago talking about Global Warming&#8217;s big winners &#8212; namely, Russia, Scandanavia, and Canada. It was fairly interesting, though I lament being unable to find it at the moment.<br />
.<br />
.<br />
<em>Fabius Maximus replies:  You may have a long time to find it, before you need it:  &#8220;<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclimate130.xml" rel="nofollow">Global warming may &#8217;stop&#8217;, scientists predict</a>&#8220;, The Telegraph (30 April 2008) &#8212; Excerpt: </p>
<p>&#8220;Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a &#8220;lull&#8221; for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.&#8221;</em></p>
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		<title>By: judasnoose</title>
		<link>http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/warn/#comment-2344</link>
		<dc:creator>judasnoose</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 09:45:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>"Why do we listen to such things without throwing fruit?"

We listen, because the experts inevitably speak in well-maintained auditoriums, which would not be economically feasible without the quiet support of the plutocrats.  Those who do throw fruit get noticed and either shunned or co-opted by the plutocrats, their old-boy network, and their establishment.
.
.
&lt;em&gt;Fabius Maximus replies:  In university halls, large funded by donations from plutocrats, I heard much leftist doctrine preached -- even communism was fashionable back then.  That is not to say that you are wrong, as over time the dynamics you describe work quietly and powerfully.&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Why do we listen to such things without throwing fruit?&#8221;</p>
<p>We listen, because the experts inevitably speak in well-maintained auditoriums, which would not be economically feasible without the quiet support of the plutocrats.  Those who do throw fruit get noticed and either shunned or co-opted by the plutocrats, their old-boy network, and their establishment.<br />
.<br />
.<br />
<em>Fabius Maximus replies:  In university halls, large funded by donations from plutocrats, I heard much leftist doctrine preached &#8212; even communism was fashionable back then.  That is not to say that you are wrong, as over time the dynamics you describe work quietly and powerfully.</em></p>
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