The War Nerd discovers van Creveld’s “power of weakness”, and demography

Gary Brecher, aka The War Nerd publishing at The Exile, has written a long and fascinating article about the intersection of military and demographic trends in the 21st century.  This just sketches out his thinking.  I recommed reading the full article.

“War of the Babies–When Modern Warfare and Demography Square Off, Demography Wins“, Gary Brecher, Taki’s Magazine, 6 May 2008

First, he “discovers” the power of weakness.  As Martin van Creveld wrote in 2004:

In private life, an adult who keeps beating down on a five year old - even such a one as originally attacked him with a knife - will be perceived as committing a crime; therefore he will lose the support of bystanders and end up by being arrested, tried and convicted. In international life, an armed force that keeps beating down on a weaker opponent will be seen as committing a series of crimes; therefore it will end up by losing the support of its allies, its own people, and its own troops.

Depending on the quality of the forces - whether they are draftees or professionals, the effectiveness of the propaganda machine, the nature of the political process, and so on - things may happen quickly or take a long time to mature. However, the outcome is always the same. He (or she) who does not understand this does not understand anything about war; or, indeed, human nature.

Excerpt:

What was the most important battle of the late 20th century? You could argue it was the one that took place on the southern border of Morocco on November 6, 1975. Of course, we’re not talking about another Stalingrad here. In fact, what happened that day isn’t usually called a battle at all. Its official name is “The Green March.” On one side were 350,000 unarmed Moroccan civilians carrying green (Islamic) flags, and on the other-miles inside the border, because they were hoping not to have to confront any of the marchers - was a shaky, demoralized token force of Spanish troops pretending to defend a former Spanish colony, the Spanish Sahara. … The Moroccans had to think outside the traditional military-conquest box, for the simple reason that Morocco’s armed forces are pathetic.

From the 3rd century BC, Polybius warns us about demographic collapse

From Polybius’ Histories, 202-220 BC

The fact is that the people of Hellas had entered the false path of ostentation, avarice and laziness, and were therefore becoming unwilling to marry, or, if they did marry, to bring up the children born to them; the majority were only willing to bring up at most one or two, in order to leave them wealthy and to spoil them in their childhood; and in consequence of all this the evil had been spreading rapidly before it was observed. 

Where there are families of one or two children, of whom war claims one and disease the other for its victim, it is an evident and inevitable consequence that households should be left desolate and that states, precisely like beehives, should gradually lose their reserves and sink into impotence.

On this subject there is no need whatsoever to inquire of the gods as to how we are to be saved from the cancer.  The plain man will answer that, first and foremost, we must save ourselves, either by changing our obsession or alternatively by making it illegal not to bring up every child that is born.

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Other posts on this topic

1. Another front in the geopolitical struggles shaping our world  (3 June 2008)
2. “The Return of Patriarchy“ - a classic article about demography   (5 June 2008)
3. More news about Russia’s demographic collapse  (6 June 2008)

For a wide range of studies and articles see the new archive of major reports about demographic change.

More news about Russia’s demographic collapse

Excerpt from “Demography and development in Russia“, UN Development Program (28 April 2008) - Excerpt:

Demographic development in Russia that to a large extent has much in common with the European one is characterized by the following trends:

1. It is already for forty years that fertility in Russia cannot provide for the simple replacement of its population; mortality in men of working age is as high as it was a century ago.

2. Beginning from 1992, mortality in Russia has consistently exceeded fertility: the loss of population has amounted to approximately 12 mln individuals and was partially compensated for by 5.5 mln due to migration gains.

3. Should current reproductive trends (low fertility and high mortality) remain, they could lead to a nationwide population of 125-135 mln by early 2025 and as low as 100 mln by 2050.

“The Return of Patriarchy“ - a classic article about demography

“The Return of Patriarchy“, Phillip Longman of New America Foundation, Foreign Policy  (1 March 2006) — Subscriber-only.  Alternate site, free.

Summary:  “Across the globe, people are choosing to have fewer children or none at all. Governments are desperate to halt the trend, but their influence seems to stop at the bedroom door. Are some societies destined to become extinct? Hardly. It’s more likely that conservatives will inherit the Earth. Like it or not, a growing proportion of the next generation will be born into families who believe that father knows best.”

This is a fascinating and provocative article.  As with any article explaining our intimate behavior, it will be impossible for many people to accept.  As 10 year old boys close their eyes to kissing in the movies, anything but economic or rational explanations for our behavior are difficult for us to accept.

The conclusion is the weakest part of his case, imo — the “it will turn out OK in the end” fallacy, adopting the viewpoint of a 23rd century historian.  Longman has not considered other scenarios.  Even if he is broadly correct, the next cycle might be more like Islamic fundamentalists Dad knows best — not the mild buffoon-like Dad of 1950’s sitcoms.

Excerpt:

… Patriarchy does not simply mean that men rule. Indeed, it is a particular value system that not only requires men to marry but to marry a woman of proper station. It competes with many other male visions of the good life, and for that reason alone is prone to come in cycles. Yet before it degenerates, it is a cultural regime that serves to keep birthrates high among the affluent, while also maximizing parents’ investments in their children. No advanced civilization has yet learned how to endure without it.

Through a process of cultural evolution, societies that adopted this particular social system-which involves far more than simple male domination-maximized their population and therefore their power, whereas those that didn’t were either overrun or absorbed. This cycle in human history may be obnoxious to the enlightened, but it is set to make a comeback.

Another front in the geopolitical struggles shaping our world: demography

Summary:  this is the first in a new series, considering one of the most powerful geopolitical forces of our time:  demographic change.  This first chapter looks at one of the more interesting — even exotic — writers about these things:  Spengler.

Many forces shape our world.  Some work quickly, like the four horsemen — war, famine, disease, and death.  Some work slowly, so that only over a lifetime does one see their effects, such as technology, evolution in political and moral standards.  Some so slowly that only statistics change mark their changes, and forecast the results.  Like climate change and demographic trends.

Of all the large forces changing the world, only demographic changes are often ignored.  The movements of people, changes in fertility and lifespans — these are almost irresistible forces, yet often ignored by both major media and public policy.  Yet these are the things that most often bring peoples into existence, or sweep them off the globe into the dustbin of history.

Among all the forces at work in the modern world, I consider the greatest to be the demographic changes.   The coupled phenomena of dying cultures — fertility rates far below that necessary for replacement — plus migration of peoples from high fertility to low fertilty cultures.  Few analysts study these things, compared to relatively trivial forces such as terrorism, and even fewer contemplate their causes.