End of the post-WWII geopolitical regime - an archive of articles

This page has two sections.  First, links to my articles about the end of the Post-WWII geopolitical and economic regime.  Second, links to Niall Ferguson’s articles that are about this or relevant to it.

Articles by Fabius Maximus about the end of the Post-WWII geopolitical and economic regime

The three key articles are in bold.

1. A brief note on the US Dollar. Is this like August 1914?  (8 November 2007) — How the current situation is as unstable financially as was Europe geopolitically in early 1914.
2. The post-WWII geopolitical regime is dying. Chapter One   (21 November 2007) — Why the current geopolitical order is unstable, describing the policy choices that brought us here.
3. We have been warned. Death of the post-WWII geopolitical regime, Chapter II  (28 November 2007) — A long list of the warnings we have ignored, from individual experts and major financial institutions (links included).
4. Power shifts from West to East: the end of the post-WWII regime in the news  (20 December 2007) — We are seeing another western industry ceding dominance to eastern competitors, one more step in a larger process.
5. Death of the post-WWII geopolitical regime, III - death by debt  (8 January 2008) – Origins of the long economic expansion from 1982 to 2006; why the down cycle will be so severe.
6. A recommendation to read these bulletins from the front! (21 January 2008) – A brief note on today’s articles in the NY Times and Financial Times, with Brad Setser’s explanation of why they are important.
7. Geopolitical implications of the current economic downturn  (24 January 2008) – How will this recession end?  With re-balancing of the global economy, so that the US goods and services are again competitive.  No more trade deficit, and we can pay out debts.
8. Let us light a candle while we walk, lest we fear what lies ahead  (10 February 2008) – Putting the end of the post-WWII regime in a larger historical context.
9. A happy ending to the current economic recession (12 February 2008) – The political actions which might end this downturn, and their long-term implications.
10. Understatement can be a form of courage — a comment about the US economy  (28 February 2008) — Our leaders have begun to speak to us about unpleasant truths.  What might they be saying in a year or two?
11. Our metastable Empire, built on a foundation of clay  (3 March 2008) — More thoughts on the “dreamland” described by Wolfgang Schivelbusch in The Culture of Defeat, and what it tells us about the foundatino of the American empire.
12. The US economy at Defcon 2  (11 March 2008) — Pretty self-explanatory.  Where are we in the downcycle?  What might the world look like when it ends?
13. What will America look like after this recession?  (18 March 208)  — More forecasts.  The recession might change so many things, from the distribution of wealth within the US to the ranking of global powers.
14. Slow steps to nationalizing the US financial sector  (7 April 2008) — Slowly Americans recognize what is happening.  More about how this will change our society.

Links to article by Niall Ferguson

“Sinking Globalization“, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2005) — “Could globalization collapse? It may seem unlikely today. Yet despite many warnings, people were shocked the last time globalization crumbled, with the onslaught of World War I. Like today, that period was marked by imperial overstretch, great-power rivalry, unstable alliances, rogue regimes, and terrorist organizations. And the world is no better prepared for calamity now.”

“The unconscious colossus: limits of (& alternatives to) American empire“, Daedalus (Spring 2005) — The first part is a summary of his book, Colossus: The Price of America’s Empire.  The second part discussed the future of the American, considering the war in Iraq and our internal weaknesses.

“Political risk and the international bond market between the 1848 revolution and the outbreak of the First World War“, Economic History Review (February 2006) — “This article uses price data and editorial commentaries from the contemporary financial press to measure the impact of political events on investors’ expectations from the middle of the 19th century until WWI. Why do political events appear to affect the world’s biggest financial market, the London bond market, much less between 1881 and 1914 than they had between 1843 and 1880. In particular, why was the outbreak of WWI, an event traditionally seen as having been heralded by a series of international crises, not anticipated by investors. The article considers how far the declining sensitivity of the bond market to political events was a result of the spread of the gold standard, increased international financial integration, or changes in the fiscal policies of the great powers. I suggest that the increasing national separation of bond markets offers a better explanation. However, even this structural change cannot explain why the London market was so slow to appreciate the risk of war in 1914. To investors, WWI truly came as a bolt from the blue.”

“Empires with Expiration Dates“, Foreign Policy (September/October 2006) — “Empires drive history. But the empires of the past 100 years were short lived, none surviving to see the dawn of the new century. Today, there are no empires, at least not officially. But that could soon change if the United States-or even China-embraces its imperial destiny. How can they avoid the fate of those who came before them?”

“Empire Falls“, Vanity Fair (October 2006) — “They called it “the American Century,” but the past 100 years actually saw a shift away from Western dominance. Through the long lens of Edward Gibbon’s The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Rome 331 and America and Europe 2006 appear to have more than a few problems in common.”