Peak oil and energy - studies and reports

Here are valuable resources about the global energy crisis.   It is often called “Peak Oil”, but that captures only one aspect of it.

Contents

1. Works of Robert Hirsch, one of America’s top energy experts
2. Articles about energy
3. Books about energy
4. My posts about energy

I.  Robert Hirsch

To learn more about Peak Oil, I strongly recommend reading the work of Robert Hirsch.  These articles are clear, insightful, and well-supported.

Here is a brief biography.  He ran the US Fusion Program during the 1970’s, and went from there to become one of America’s top energy experts.

1. “The Energy Plateau“, Public Utilities Reports, 1 May 1996
2. Electric Power from Renewable Energy: Practical Realities for Policy-Makers (a slide presentation based on his December 2002 article in the Journal of Fusion Energy (the article an be purchased online here)
3. Six Major Factors in Energy Planning , 1 March 2004
4. Peaking of World Production: What are We Willing to Risk , 14 June 2004
5. Peaking of World Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (aka “Mitigations”, commissioned by the Dept of Energy, this is the most important work so far on how to prepare for Peak Oil. Co-authors are the economists Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling) (February 2005)
6. Economic Impacts of Liquid Fuel Mitigation Options (same 3 co-authors as Mitigations), February 2006
7. Peaking of World Production: an Overview, 23 October 2006
8. Peaking of World Production: Problem, Complexity, Mitigation, and Risks , 30 November 2006
9. World Oil Shortage: Scenarios for Mitigation Planning , October 2007

II.  Articles about energy

General energy research

• “Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production“, Government Accountability Office (GAO), February 2007, 82 page PDF

Biofuels

1. “A Look Back at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Aquatic Species Program: Biodiesel from Algae“, DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, July 1998 (PDF, 328 pages)
2. “Brief on Biomass and Cellulosic Ethanol“, California Research Bureau, March 2005 — PDF 37 pages
3. “Cellulosic Ethanol: Where are we now, where are we going?“, DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 6 October 2006 – PDF of 30 slides
4. “Research Advances Cellulosic Ethanol, NREL Leads the Way“, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, March 2007, PDF, 8 slides
5. “Roadmap for bioenergy & biobased products in the US“, Biomass Research and Development Technical Advisory Committee, October 2007
6. “Roadmap for bioenergy & biobased products in the US“, Biomass Research and Development Technical Advisory Committee, 1 March 2008 (32 pages)

Coal, coal to liquids

1. “The Future of Coal“, B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves, Prepared for European Commission DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy (JRC IFE),  February 2007
2. “COAL OF THE FUTURE (SUPPLY PROSPECTS FOR THERMAL COAL BY 2030-2050)“, Energy Edge Limited, Prepared for the European Commission - DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy (JRC IFE), February 2007
3. “Coal:  Resources and Future Production“, Energy Watch Group, March 2007  (47 pages, PDF)
4. “Coal:  Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy“, National Academies (June 2007) — Summary; Full copy is aprox $40.  Key paragraph:

“Present estimates of coal reserves - which take into account location, quality, recoverability, and transportation issues - are based upon methods that have not been updated since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess coal recoverability in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually recoverable. Such findings emphasize the need for a reinvigorated coal reserve assessment program using modern methods and technologies.”

Fusion

• “Overview of fusion nuclear technology in the US“, Fusion Engineering and Design, Feburary 2006

Geothermal

• “The Future of Geothermal Energy“, MIT, 2006 (PDF, 372 pages)– The Future of Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century.  An interdisciplinary MIT study.

Hydrogen

1. “The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs“, Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use, National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering (2004)
2. “The Hydrogen Hoax“, Robert Zubrin, The New Atlantis, Winter 2007 (12 pages)

Methane Hydrates

• “Charting the Future of Methane Hydrate Research in the United States“, National Research Council, 2004 (196 pages)

Nuclear

• “The Future of Nuclear Power“, MIT, 29 June 2003 — An interdisciplinary MIT study.

Petroleum, including oil sands and shale oil

1. “Shale Oil - the elusive energy“, Walter Youngquist, Colorado School of Mines, October 1998 — An excellent introduction to the geology and history of shale oil.
2. “The Big Rollover“, L. B. Magoon, US Geological Survey (USGS), 2000 — Perhaps the best one-page description of peak (actually a 33″ x 17″ poster.
3. “Peace and Security in the Niger Delta“, Conflict Expert Group of WAC Global Services, December 2003 — Without big changes to how Shell works with the government and the communities of the delta, Shell could be driven out of the Nigerian oilfields by 2008.
4. “Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply“, Bengt Söderbergh, Uppsala University, January 2005 (105 pages)
5. “Canada’s Oil Sands - Opportunities and Challenges to 2015“, June 2006 (85 pages) — Produced by Canada’s Natinal Energy Board; excellent work!
6. “Canadian Oil Sands: A new force in the world oil market“, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, 26 June 2006 (14 pages)
7. “Canada’s Energy Future“, Canada’s National Energy Board, November 2007 (155 pages) — Scenarios out to 2030
8. “Crude Awakening: Behind the Surge in Oil Prices“, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, May 2008 (3.2 meg PDF) — The best analysis I have seen of what is driving up oil prices.

III.  Books about energy

There are many good books about Peak Energy. These are the ones I recommend for an introduction to the issue.

1. Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (2001)
2. Beyond Oil: the View from Hubbert’s Peak, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (2005)
3. Twilight in the Desert: The coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy, by Matthew R. Simmons (2005)

IV.  My most important posts about Peak Oil

1. When will global oil production peak? Here is the answer! (1 November 2008)
2. Links to articles and presentations of some A-team energy experts  (11 November 2007)
3. The most dangerous form of Peak Oil  (8 April 2008)
4. The world changed last week, with no headlines to mark the news   (25 April 2008)
5. Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off  (8 May 2008)

Here is the full archive of my posts about Peak Oil.