Peak oil and energy – studies and reports

This ”reference page” provides links to valuable resources about the global energy crisis.   It is often called “Peak Oil”, but that captures only one aspect of it.

This is not a discussion page.  Please post comments only about corrections or suggested additions.

For more information see Peak Oil and Energy – my articles.

Contents

1. Works of Robert Hirsch, one of America’s top energy experts
2. Articles and studies about the major current and future sources of energy
3. Books about energy

I.  Robert Hirsch

To learn more about Peak Oil, I strongly recommend reading the work of Robert Hirsch.  These articles are clear, insightful, and well-supported.

Here is a brief biography.  He ran the US Fusion Program during the 1970’s, and went from there to become one of America’s top energy experts.

1. “The Energy Plateau“, Public Utilities Reports, 1 May 1996
2. “Electric Power from Renewable Energy: Practical Realities for Policy-Makers“ (a slide presentation based on his December 2002 article in the Journal of Fusion Energy (the article an be purchased online here)
3. “Six Major Factors in Energy Planning“, 1 March 2004
4. “Peaking of World Production: What are We Willing to Risk“, 14 June 2004
5. “Peaking of World Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management“ (aka “Mitigations”, commissioned by the Dept of Energy, this is the most important work so far on how to prepare for Peak Oil. Co-authors are the economists Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling) (February 2005)
6. “Economic Impacts of Liquid Fuel Mitigation Options“ (same 3 co-authors as Mitigations), February 2006
7. Peaking of World Production: an Overview, 23 October 2006
8. “Peaking of World Production: Problem, Complexity, Mitigation, and Risks“, 30 November 2006
9. “World Oil Shortage: Scenarios for Mitigation Planning“, October 2007
10. “Getting Real on Wind and Solar“, James Schlesinger and Robert L. Hirsch, op-ed in the Washington Post, 24 April 2009

II.  Articles about energy

General energy research

• “Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production“, Government Accountability Office (GAO), February 2007, 82 page PDF

Biofuels

1. The Switchgrass Pipe Dream, Gary Novak, Science is Broken
2. “A Look Back at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Aquatic Species Program: Biodiesel from Algae“, DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, July 1998 (PDF, 328 pages)
3. “Brief on Biomass and Cellulosic Ethanol“, California Research Bureau, March 2005 — PDF 37 pages
4. “Cellulosic Ethanol: Where are we now, where are we going?“, DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 6 October 2006 – PDF of 30 slides
5. “Research Advances Cellulosic Ethanol, NREL Leads the Way“, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, March 2007, PDF, 8 slides
6. “Energy Department Selects Three Bioenergy Research Centers for $375 Million in Federal Funding“, Dept of Energy, 26 June 2007 — “Basic Genomics Research Furthers President Bush’s Plan to Reduce Gasoline Usage 20 Percent in Ten Years and making cellulosic ethanol cost-competitive with gasoline by 2012.”
7. “Roadmap for bioenergy & biobased products in the US“, Biomass Research and Development Technical Advisory Committee, October 2007
8. “Roadmap for bioenergy & biobased products in the US“, Biomass Research and Development Technical Advisory Committee, 1 March 2008 (32 pages)
9. “Gut Reactions“, The Atlantic, September 2008 — “Could the same properties that make the termite such a costly pest help us solve global warming?”
10. “Algae Biofuels Challenge“, UK Carbon Trust (created 2001, publically funded independent company), December 2008 — A multi-million pound initiative to develop algae as a source of fuel.
11. “U.S. Biofuel Boom Running on Empty“, Wall Street Journal, 27 August 2009 — Boom to bust.

Coal, coal to liquids

1. “The Future of Coal“, B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves, Prepared for European Commission DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy (JRC IFE),  February 2007
2. “COAL OF THE FUTURE (SUPPLY PROSPECTS FOR THERMAL COAL BY 2030-2050)“, Energy Edge Limited, Prepared for the European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy (JRC IFE), February 2007
3. “Coal:  Resources and Future Production“, Energy Watch Group, March 2007  (47 pages, PDF)
4. “Obama Tells SF Chronicle He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry” — 17 January 2008 interview of Obama by the San Francisco Chronicle.
5. “Steven Chu: ‘Coal is My Worst Nightmare’“, Wall Street Journal, 11 December 2008 — Chu is our new Secretary of Energy.
6. “Coal:  Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy“, National Academies (June 2007) — Summary; Full copy is aprox $40.  Key paragraph:

“Present estimates of coal reserves – which take into account location, quality, recoverability, and transportation issues – are based upon methods that have not been updated since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess coal recoverability in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually recoverable. Such findings emphasize the need for a reinvigorated coal reserve assessment program using modern methods and technologies.”

7.  ”Coal plants cancelled in 2007“, Sourcewatch — Excerpt:

Between 2000 and 2006, over 150 coal plant proposals were fielded by utilities in the United States. By the end of 2007, 10 of those proposed plants had been constructed, and an additional 25 plants were under construction. But during 2007 a large number of proposed plants were cancelled, abandoned, or put on hold: 59 according to the list below.

8.  ”Coal plants cancelled in 2008“, Sourcewatch — Excerpt:

Since the beginning of 2008, the following 19 proposed coal plants have been cancelled, abandoned, or put on hold, including 18 projects the United States and 1 project in the Netherlands:…

Fusion

• “Overview of fusion nuclear technology in the US“, Fusion Engineering and Design, Feburary 2006

Geothermal

1. “The Future of Geothermal Energy“, MIT, 2006 (PDF, 372 pages)– The Future of Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century.  An interdisciplinary MIT study.
2. “As Geothermal Energy Heats Up, 5 Next-Gen Projects Take Shape“, Popular Mechanics, 28 August 2008

Hydrogen

1. “The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs“, Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use, National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering (2004)
2. “The Hydrogen Hoax“, Robert Zubrin, The New Atlantis, Winter 2007 (12 pages)

Methane Hydrates

• “Charting the Future of Methane Hydrate Research in the United States“, National Research Council, 2004 (196 pages)

Nuclear

1. “The Future of Nuclear Power“, MIT, 29 June 2003 — An interdisciplinary MIT study.
2. “The Economics of Investment in New Nuclear Power Plants in the US“, Paul L. Joskow (MIT), EIA, 12 April 2005 — PDF, 19 slides.
3. “Nuclear power will be added faster than wind power“, posted at Next Big Future, 25 August 2008 — List of nukes under construction.
4. “Breeder Reactors, Uranium from Phosphate and Near Term Thorium usage“, posted at Next Big Future, 22 September 2008

 Petroleum, general

1. “The Big Rollover“, L. B. Magoon, US Geological Survey (USGS), 2000 — Perhaps the best one-page description of peak (actually a 33″ x 17″ poster.
2. “U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WORLD PETROLEUM ASSESSMENT 2000 – DESCRIPTION AND RESULTS“
3. “The Future of Petroleum: Optimism, Pessimism, or Something Else?“, Ronald R. Charpentier, USGS, 29 January 2003
4. “Peace and Security in the Niger Delta“, Conflict Expert Group of WAC Global Services, December 2003 — Without big changes to how Shell works with the government and the communities of the delta, Shell could be driven out of the Nigerian oilfields by 2008.
5. “Crude Awakening: Behind the Surge in Oil Prices“, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, May 2008 (3.2 meg PDF) — The best analysis I have seen of what is driving up oil prices.
6. “Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08“, James Hamilton, Brookings Institute, 23 March 2009 (70 pages)
7. “Imported Oil and U.S. National Security“, RAND, May 2009, 126 pages.

Petroleum:  oil sand

1. “Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply“, Bengt Söderbergh, Uppsala University, January 2005 (105 pages)
2. “Canada’s Oil Sands – Opportunities and Challenges to 2015“, June 2006 (85 pages) — Produced by Canada’s Natinal Energy Board; excellent work!
3. “Canadian Oil Sands: A new force in the world oil market“, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, 26 June 2006 (14 pages)
4. “Canada’s Energy Future“, Canada’s National Energy Board, November 2007 (155 pages) — Scenarios out to 2030
5. “High costs squeeze oil sands“, Financial Post, 5 September 2008 — “Break-even price jumps 31%.”  Now aprox $85/barrel.”
6. “UBS says new oil sands projects need pricey crude“, Reuters, 19 September 2008 — New projects need $100+/barrel oil to turn a decent profit.

 Petroleum: shale oil

1.  ”Shale Oil – the elusive energy“, Walter Youngquist, Colorado School of Mines, October 1998 — An excellent introduction to the geology and history of shale oil.
2. “Oil Shale: History, Incentives, and Policy“, Congressional Research Service, 13 April 2006
3. “Experimental and Numerical Simulation of Oil Recovery from Oil Shales by Electrical Heating“, Berna Hascakir, Tayfun Babadagli, Serhat Akin, Energy and Fuels, publication pending, posted 5 September 2008

Solar

• “XCPV Solar Panels Aim for Much Cheaper, Chip-Based Power“, Popular Mechanics, 30 September 2008 — Cheaper than coal, or so they say.

Tidal Energy

• “Burning the Tide“, Popular Science, 25 September 2008

Wind

• “A Design for Cheaper Wind Power‘, Technology Review (published by MIT), 1 December 2008 — “A design that draws on jet engine technology could halve the cost of generating electricity from wind.”
• “The Unbearable Lightness of Wind“, Ross McCracken (Editor), Platts Energy Economist Insight, April 2009

III.  Books about energy

There are many good books about Peak Energy. These are the ones I recommend for an introduction to the issue.

1. Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (2001)
2. Beyond Oil: the View from Hubbert’s Peak, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes (2005)
3. Twilight in the Desert: The coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy, by Matthew R. Simmons (2005)